Forecasting Methodology
Azuce uses a physics-based approach to estimate solar energy production with transparent, defensible calculations.
Our proprietary algorithms process satellite-derived irradiance measurements to provide monthly average solar values. This data is calibrated for your specific project location using advanced geospatial modeling and represents long-term climatological averages.
- Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) for each month
- Average ambient temperature for temperature derating
- Real-time data synchronization for accuracy
Monthly energy production is calculated using:
Energy (kWh) = Irradiance × Days × SystemSize × POA × TempFactor × (1 - Losses)
Where:
- Irradiance: Monthly average solar irradiance (kWh/m²/day)
- Days: Number of days in the month
- SystemSize: Your system capacity in kW
- POA: Plane of Array factor based on tilt and azimuth
- TempFactor: Temperature derating coefficient
- Losses: Combined system losses (wiring, inverter, soiling, etc.)
Solar panels are less efficient at higher temperatures. We apply a temperature coefficient (typically -0.35%/°C to -0.45%/°C) to account for this:
TempFactor = 1 + (TempCoeff × (CellTemp - 25°C))
Cell temperature is estimated from ambient temperature plus approximately 25°C under typical operating conditions.
We provide three estimates to give you confidence in your projections:
- Conservative (−10%): Lower-bound estimate accounting for above-average losses
- Expected: Our best estimate based on typical conditions
- Optimistic (+10%): Upper-bound estimate for favorable conditions
This range helps you present defensible estimates to customers while accounting for real-world variability.